Can you believe this episode started from a tweet? Yes, of course it started from a tweet. My concern was misinformation about displacement and wanted to note that its county specific. Montgomery County Planning was gracious enough to talk to me about this research and to answer some of my questions.

In this episode, we explore the findings of a recent study on Neighborhood Change in the Washington DC metropolitan region, with a focus on Montgomery County, Maryland. The research, conducted by the Montgomery County Planning Department, a part of the The Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission (M-NCPPC), found that the most pressing issue in the county is low-income concentration, rather than displacement. Additionally, the study revealed that new housing construction is associated with inclusive economic growth in diverse neighborhoods. This research was based on a methodology developed by the University of Minnesota and was advanced by the Research and Strategic Projects Division at Montgomery Planning. The findings were presented to the Montgomery County Planning Board on May 19, 2022, and an interactive map showing low-income concentration, inclusive growth, and displacement in the region is available on the department's website. The Purple Line Corridor Coalition’s Housing Action Plan also in place, and the department's long-term vision for the county, Thrive Montgomery 2050, is also discussed. Casey Anderson, the Montgomery County Planning Board Chair, Tanya Stern, Deputy Director and former DC planner, and Ben Kraft, a researcher at Montgomery Planning and the author of the neighborhood change analysis, provide insight on the study's key findings.

According to this research, low-income concentration are significant in Montgomery county than displacement. The study was conducted by replicating the methodology used by the University of Minnesota, with updated data of race and ethnicity and housing. The study analyzed census data as the main input. The core neighborhood change metric used was the way that high income and low income populations change relative to each other in a neighborhood.

What are the categories for neighborhood change?

Ben Kraft is a Montgomery Planning researcher who focuses on economic development, employment, housing, and equity issues for the Montgomery County Planning Board. Ben and his colleagues conducted research on Neighborhood Change, which is divided into four categories: inclusive growth, displacement, low-income concentration, and abandonment. Inclusive growth refers to both low and high income populations increasing in a neighborhood. Displacement occurs when the low income population replaces the high income population. Low-income concentration refers to a neighborhood becoming poorer and experiencing disinvestment. Abandonment refers to both populations shrinking and resulting in a net population loss. These categories are determined by thresholds of population change in a neighborhood.

Are the areas that ‘Does not meet criteria’ stagnant?

This research looks at patterns of neighborhood change in Montgomery County, Maryland, including low income concentration, inclusive growth, and displacement. The majority of the county does not meet the criteria for these categories, meaning that the area is stagnant or has not changed significantly. Low income concentration is the most common pattern in Montgomery County, followed by displacement and inclusive growth. Other jurisdictions, such as DC and Arlington, VA, have more instances of displacement than concentration of poverty. There are relatively few instances of inclusive growth in all jurisdictions, and the researchers (Montgomery County) are interested in understanding how to replicate this "ideal" situation of lower and higher income people living together in the same neighborhood in more areas.

Do you think Sprawl or density has anything to do with your findings?

The research findings on patterns of neighborhood change, including displacement, low income concentration, and inclusive growth, do not seem to be directly tied to the density or sprawl of an area. Displacement can occur in both urban and rural areas, and inclusive growth can occur in both urban and suburban areas. The availability of housing appears to be a key factor in whether an area experiences inclusive growth. The development of housing in less restricted areas on the outskirts of a region may have contributed to the occurrence of inclusive growth in those areas. However, the negative externalities associated with sprawl, such as traffic and environmental impacts, present challenges in terms of promoting more sustainable and equitable development.

Casey Anderson, Montgomery County Planning Board Chair

Casey Anderson has served on the Montgomery County Planning Board since 2011 and was appointed Chair in 2014. He also serves as  Chair of the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission, the bi-county agency established by state law that regulates real estate development, plans transportation infrastructure, and manages the park systems in Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties. While on the Planning Board he:

• Conceived a market-oriented system for allocating development capacity in Downtown Bethesda to raise funds for urban parks, create incentives for construction of affordable housing and raise standards for design excellence.
• Proposed the idea of redeveloping the Apex Building site to facilitate construction of the Purple Line light rail station in downtown Bethesda and provide a new below-grade tunnel connection for the Capital Crescent Trail under Wisconsin Avenue. The proposal ultimately resulted in a minor master plan that in turn led to an ambitious mixed-use project (currently in development) that will incorporate the station and trail tunnel.
• Suggested measuring latent demand for bicycling accommodations to produce a heat map of the county, identifying the best places for investments in bike infrastructure. The Montgomery Planning transportation staff expanded the heat map concept into an award-winning digital Bicycle Stress Map, which identifies places where less experienced cyclists need safer routes if they are going to feel comfortable riding.
• Focused the Parks Department on acquisition and programming of urban parks. This shift has resulted in the new Energized Public Spaces Plan, which aims to provide more parks and public spaces that encourage active recreation and social interaction in densely populated areas of the county.
• Pushed the Parks Department to make better use of data and analytics, including a comprehensive assessment of maintenance and usage of athletic fields.
• Led the agency’s efforts to help strengthen economic development and competitiveness, including cooperative efforts with County Executive Ike Leggett to help retain Marriott International in Montgomery County and with Prince George’s Planning Board Chair Elizabeth Hewlett to urge Maryland Governor Larry Hogan to advance the Purple Line project, and add new staff and training in real estate finance and economic analysis in land use and transportation planning.
• Championed proposals to reduce minimum parking requirements; prioritize improvements for biking, walking and transit; and incorporate vehicle miles traveled generated by development as a central factor in setting transportation impact rates.
• Helped to shape plans for a countywide bus rapid transit network as well as major land use plans for White Oak, Bethesda and White Flint.

Before he was named Chair of the Planning Board, Anderson founded a jury consulting firm after working as a congressional staffer, government relations executive, newspaper reporter, and lawyer in private practice. He has served on the boards of several non-profit organizations, including the Washington Area Bicyclist Association, the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence, the Committee for Montgomery, the Woodside Civic Association and the Silver Spring Citizens Advisory Board. Anderson holds undergraduate and law degrees from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University. He lives in Silver Spring with his wife Mary Boyle and their two children. He enjoys mountain biking, coaching competitive high school debate, and volunteering with the Boy Scouts of America

Tanya Stern, Deputy Director and former planner in DC.

Tanya Stern is Deputy Planning Director at the Montgomery County Planning Department where she oversees five divisions providing countywide policy development and data analysis for zoning, growth management, transportation planning, historic preservation and housing; real estate and economic analysis and population forecasting; and department-wide services including human resources, budgeting, GIS and information technology and communications. She also is serving as an advisor for Montgomery County’s General Plan Update, Thrive Montgomery 2050, launched in 2019. Ms. Stern previously served for 14 years in the Government of the District of Columbia.  She spent eight years at the DC Office of Planning (OP), most recently as Deputy Director overseeing OP’s Neighborhood Planning and Design divisions. While in that role, she also served as Project Director to launch DC’s current Comprehensive Plan update. She led the creation of new planning policies to integrate the topic of resilience throughout DC’s Comprehensive Plan, oversaw updates to the Plan’s land use, urban design and 10 geographic area policy chapters and evaluated proposed plan amendments from the public.  Ms. Stern’s District government experience also included serving as OP’s Chief of Staff, in agency program and performance management and budget development roles in other District agencies, including the Executive Office of the Mayor, and as a community planner for the DC Department of Parks and Recreation. Additionally, she has 11 years of non-profit sector experience. Ms. Stern holds a master’s in city planning from the University of Pennsylvania and is certified through the American Institute of Certified Planners and as a Certified Public Manager. She also is a member of Lambda Alpha International, the Honorary Society for the Advancement of Land Economics, and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). Ms. Stern is currently the co-chair of the ULI Washington District Council’s Placemaking Initiative Council and co-chair of ULI Washington’s Initiative Council Steering Committee

Ben Kraft, Montgomery Planning researcher, author of neighborhood change analysis

Ben Kraft is a research planner in the Research and Strategic Projects Division. His research and planning work focuses on topics related to the economy and employment. Ben has a Ph.D. in City and Regional Planning from Georgia Tech and a Master’s degree in Urban Planning from the University of Michigan.